CONVECTIVE FORECAST - UPDATE
VALID 10Z WED 18/08 - 06Z THU 19/08 2004
ISSUED: 18/08 09:32Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms forecast across the southeastern UK, the low countries, Denmark, a large part of Germany, much of France and Switzerland and across northwestern Italy.

General thunderstorms are forecast across much of western Europe, central Europe, the Baltic States, southern Scndinavia, and a part of Russia as well as the area around the Black Sea.

SYNOPSIS

refer to convective forecast.

DISCUSSION

...northwestern Italy...
Have included NWrn Italyin the slight risk area. Although large-scale upward motion shouldn't be very strong over this area, a few storms will likely form. Thermodynamics look quite favourable for supercells (per 00Z LIML sounding, showing 2000 J/kg MLCAPE50 and strong deep-layer shear). Storms may be produce large hail, strong winds and tornadoes. So even though the coverage of storms will likely not be high, a slight risk seems warranted for this region as well.

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